Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 14.514939 17.680543 21.213765 25.426789 30.289709 35.702407 42.157472
2025-04-27 10.180454 14.318035 19.460399 26.217904 34.751164 45.051049 58.293452
2025-05-04 7.875780 12.404607 18.517163 27.144599 38.754157 53.564941 73.579153
2025-05-11 6.256976 10.897268 17.625252 27.708679 41.999156 61.049900 87.809462
2025-05-18 4.904220 9.414211 16.412497 27.496499 43.952251 66.752912 99.865975
2025-05-25 3.757826 7.962839 14.943424 26.605599 44.696157 70.673718 109.564135
2025-06-01 2.998840 6.976648 14.005655 26.327491 46.195093 75.621146 120.831768
2025-06-08 2.288511 5.891695 12.695197 25.230308 46.249505 78.356180 128.959782
2025-06-15 1.972281 5.509572 12.547752 26.022845 49.298807 85.680510 144.111570
2025-06-22 1.538626 4.752601 11.564359 25.210032 49.605332 88.753537 152.981427
2025-06-29 1.352955 4.518024 11.556110 26.138473 52.873289 96.600446 169.444139
2025-07-06 0.998939 3.748426 10.307213 24.567733 51.655459 97.147436 174.540030
2025-07-13 0.838977 3.473941 10.133874 25.186975 54.592378 105.006724 192.177248
2025-07-20 0.706302 3.235459 10.009643 25.915198 57.838665 113.661019 211.679833
2025-07-27 0.604833 3.053937 9.981854 26.830133 61.489037 123.181136 233.006914
2025-08-03 0.504887 2.831871 9.804454 27.388776 64.481880 131.701897 253.029786
2025-08-10 0.396206 2.518386 9.315664 27.178566 65.931123 137.564342 268.827291
2025-08-17 0.291632 2.151676 8.585559 26.296004 65.929938 140.799425 280.262792
2025-08-24 0.224763 1.906347 8.141300 26.020511 67.124806 146.230463 295.656829
2025-08-31 0.158080 1.599773 7.417873 24.933694 66.492686 148.214809 305.078406
2025-09-07 0.134379 1.522253 7.423429 25.718735 69.949062 158.034738 328.706593
2025-09-14 0.095367 1.299944 6.863052 24.913610 69.822417 160.996232 340.165755
2025-09-21 0.082149 1.253037 6.928868 25.833273 73.638098 171.747036 366.074505